
“Covid zero” Western Australia
The Australian state of Western Australia was closed for 697 days (April 5, 2020-March 3, 2022) using policed “hard borders” in a quest for zero community transmission of covid. This policy created a situation where the potential effects of covid vaccines may be observed independently of covid infections in a population.
According to covid19data.com.au, this was the pattern of covid infection from 2020-2022 in Western Australia. You can see there was next to zero community covid transmission in the state…WA was indeed “an island within an island…our own country” (as Premier Mark McGowan said).
The people of Western Australia were held behind the state border until a “certain percentage” of the community became vaccinated, a target that changed over time (70-90%) and there were different rules on quarantine and travel between those who were unjabbed and those who were “fully jabbed” which may have meant two or three jabs. This “health advice” was accompanied by threats from Premier McGowan that “unvaccinated West Australians may not be allowed back into the state even after borders open.”
The smoking gun data? (See edit Jan 2023 within…)
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is the official government records body at the federal level. The ABS records the number of births in Australia per month. In Australia in Dec 2021, births were down 71% compared to Dec 2020, and in Western Australia births were down 79%.
The November 2021 births were also down in Australia (18%) and in Western Australia (17%) compared to their respective November 2020 data. A 17-18% decline in births in one month is still catastrophic in a population. Some may argue that it’s “pandemic stress” but given that during the Blitz in the UK (1940-1941) when the Luftwaffe was levelling the country births only dropped 3% (1940) and 4% (1941) relative to 1939.


Australia’s vaccine roll-out began on February 21, 2021, approximately 9 months before the birth numbers fell in Western Australia and in Australia overall (Nov. and Dec. 2021).
It could be argued that “not all the data from December 2021 have been submitted yet.” Ok, but it’s November 2022. Where is it? And look at November 2021. It’s the same pattern. Are the November data “incomplete” as well? It’s possible to search back through the ABS records and see that there have been no comparable monthly drops in births since 1975 (when presented data started). The state data are available on the web for the public to view. Why can’t the ABS see this as well? What are the real time ‘state-to-ABS’ reporting rates? Do these demonstrate a decline at the end of 2021?
People are concerned. Why aren’t the ABS and governments talking about this and communicating clearly about what is happening? No obfuscation and piecemeal drip-drip information, no vague handwaving about “covid delays.” It’s a year later and people demand answers.
*Edit: The ABS has not released any 2022 birth data. I am not sure if this is their normal schedule of data release.
How did this happen in “covid zero” Western Australia? Was covid actually present in the community but circulating the whole time, infecting women and causing these massive drops in live births? If so, what was the point of the “hard border”? I thought it was to “save lives.” Same with the vaccines….right?
Edit: This substack from “Unacceptable Jessica” does a great job breaking down the Australian birth rate situation and reflects my take exactly: “Ultimately, after all this, I believe that the problem we have here lies in the fact that the ABS vital statistics need to be updated to reflect reality. It is extremely annoying that we, as data analysts, have to play these guessing games, especially in times of peril and in times of data debauchery.”
Couldn’t agree more Unacceptable Jess! We are left playing guessing games while people are dying in excess.
Edit Jan 2023: The ABS has updated their webpage to include little stars next to Dec 2021 birth data (and deleted all the other little stars) with a disclaimer-explainer as follows: “Occurrence data is incomplete due to a lag in registration. This is particularly noticeable in December (and to a smaller extent in November) as births in these months are more likely to be registered in the following year.”
It’s 2023. Why hasn’t this been updated? People have to register the birth of their children for government services. Where is the reporting deficit here? People noticed and the ABS felt compelled to act which is interesting.

Epilogue
The Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration, whose tagline is: “we protect the health of Australians by regulating medicines and medical devices for safety, quality and effectiveness” is 96% industry funded. In 2020-2021 the TGA approved more than nine of every 10 drug company applications and relies almost exclusively on pharmaceutical industry funding.
The Australian Government is still recommending covid boosters for pregnant women “at any stage of pregnancy.”
Support ExcessDeathsAU with a small one-off donation (Ko-Fi)
What happened in the months after December 2021? Is that data not available?
P.S. Yes, I see that the data is not available! I imagine the ABS is in a real bind. How can they possibly release further data when it looks like this? Methinks they will find an excuse to hide it.
Great article and my dog just followed you on Twitter! (I am no longer on Twitter)